Shattered Trident - Страница 71

“Because their missiles were concentrated in one small sector, the Chinese were able to overwhelm the batteries defending Tokyo. The Japanese had another missile ship damaged by the supporting attacks, but altogether the defenders destroyed fourteen incoming hostiles. That left sixty missiles with six-hundred-kilogram warheads hitting the city, and the Chinese chose places where it was impossible to not hit something.”

He pointed to a cluster of yellow dots. “For example, of the nine missiles aimed at the Tokyo Stock Exchange, four fell on the exchange proper, effectively leveling the building. One landed a little to the southwest, flattening a securities company, two to the north shattered an elevated expressway that is a major traffic artery, and one outlier to the west collapsed a high-rise apartment building. Casualties from this one cluster of hits alone are going to be in the high hundreds, at least.

“In addition to the stock exchange, the Chinese targeted the Tokyo Shinkansen train station, the busiest in Japan, the National Diet Building with five warheads, the business district in Marunouchi, and the Tokyo Bay Aqualine. It’s a bridge-tunnel across Tokyo Bay, and although they didn’t get a direct hit, the warheads acted like depth charges and collapsed the underwater tunnel.

“It was the same story in other countries. According to our best accounting, Seoul was hit with thirty-two missiles, Taipei with forty-seven, Manila with thirty-three. A total of at least twenty-two Chinese IRBMs were shot down by national air defenses and the U.S. units at Clark Field.

“Aside from the Chinese ballistic missile strikes, the three ocean basins—the South China Sea, East China Sea, and Yellow Sea—are all battlefields. Strike aircraft and submarines hit anything flying the other side’s flags. The Chinese are even strafing alliance-flagged fishing craft. But they’re keeping most of their fighters close to home to block alliance air and cruise missile raids.

“The Chinese ground offensive in Vietnam is all about speed. They’re taking heavy casualties, but they’re making decent progress, better than they did in 1979. They’ve committed six group armies to the initial assault wave, that’s approximately equivalent to sixteen divisions. There are another three group armies marshaling in the rear area, and we’ve seen indications several more are getting ready to transfer to the Guangzhou military region. The Vietnamese are putting up a good fight, but they were pounded by Chinese air attacks for several days before the invasion began. The terrain is probably Vietnam’s best defense. It is very unfriendly to heavy mechanized units.

“And of course, the cyber attacks and the sabotage continue.”

Colonel Chambers’s last slide showed the seal of the CJCS with the word QUESTIONS.

“Are any of the alliance nations retaliating?” President Myles asked.

“South Korea, Vietnam, and India have land-attack cruise missiles, but they haven’t targeted Chinese cities, either before or after these attacks. They’ve been aimed at China’s oil infrastructure: refineries, storage areas, even a company involved in experimental oil extraction techniques. The entire alliance remains focused on the Chinese oil supply.”

Senator Frank Weitz asked, “Colonel, you didn’t say how many civilian casualties you think the alliance countries suffered.”

Chambers sighed. “It would be an estimate, Senator, and probably a poor one. It’s only been three hours since the second wave landed. We don’t even have firm casualty figures for the first set of attacks. The missiles hit on a workday morning. The commercial and business establishments were fully occupied. The roads and trains were full, although it wasn’t rush hour. Certainly thousands of souls have been killed in each city, with several times that wounded. We haven’t seen anything like this since the mass bombing raids of World War Two.”

Malcolm Geisler, the secretary of defense, asked, “Why did the Chinese change their tactics between the two raids?”

“As I mentioned earlier, it enabled them to swamp the defenses in one narrow sector. I believe it was also a correction of their targeting philosophy. The Chinese don’t have an infinite number of missiles, and in the first wave, some shots simply missed their targets and were effectively wasted.

“A DF-21C has a fifty percent chance of striking within a hundred and thirty feet of its target. For example, the Chinese fired four missiles at the Leshan Mountain ABM radar in Taiwan. One hit and damaged some of the outbuildings, but the other three were clean misses. Military targets are small, and often designed to resist damage. Civilian targets are not.” Chambers sounded grim.

“How many missiles do the Chinese have?” Weitz asked.

“They could do this two or three more times, tops. This probably represented a maximum effort, based on our estimates of the number of launchers they have.”

Congresswoman Karen Sanchez asked, “Those three group armies you mentioned. Why are they being held back?”

“Most likely as tactical reserves,” replied the colonel, “in case the Chinese need to shore up one of their main attacks, but they can also be used as garrison forces and blocking troops. This allows the main effort to just keep on going without having to worry about their rear.”

Weitz asked, “What about the media in the alliance countries? How are they reacting? The Littoral Alliance declared itself on the fifth and four days later the Chinese are pummeling the alliance capitals.”

“That’s not really my specialty, sir, but what I’ve seen is what you’d expect—anger and horror.”

Gregory Alexander, the director of national intelligence, added, “Seoul has been prepared for an attack since the end of the Korean War. This is just coming from a different direction. Japan, with seventy-plus years of pacifism, is having a tougher time of it. There’s always been a strong anti-nationalist sentiment in Japan, a reaction to the militarism of World War Two. Now that’s building, with a sort of ‘see what you’ve gotten us into!’ theme. Manila’s in between. And with the Internet, it’s all happening at light speed.”

Chambers nodded. “Absolutely. We got some of our best information about the damage caused from personal photos posted online.”

Myles seemed concerned at that news. “Greg, do you think the Chinese are taking advantage of that?”

“Absolutely,” the DNI replied. “Fast feedback from the first strike undoubtedly affected their targeting decisions. And it’s possible that the Chinese are also salting the forums and chat boards with provocative posts.”

“Strategic trolling,” Myles remarked. “And damage assessment provided by the target. It’s a real advantage for China. They can see exactly what effect their attacks are having, physically and psychologically.”

“In World War Two, the governments kept detailed information about bombing attacks out of the media,” Alexander replied. “All they’d print was, ‘Portsmouth was bombed with some damage last night.’ Can any democracy do that today?”

Nobody had an answer for that.

“And these attacks are expected to continue?” Geisler asked.

“There’s no reason for them not to,” Chambers answered firmly. “It takes several hours to check out a launcher and load another missile, and each brigade can only reload so many launchers at the same time. We could see another salvo in five to eight hours.”

Sanchez raised her hand. “One last question, Colonel, or maybe Mr. Alexander. How close are the Chinese to breaking? Will we be able to tell? What will we be able to do if that happens?” Chambers raised his hands and stepped back, shaking his head.

Myles nodded to Alexander. “Tell them what you told me, Greg.”

“Ma’am, that’s three excellent questions, not one. Large-scale civil disorders or significant electrical blackouts would be the easiest to spot, but other signs could be sudden changes in the leadership, even problems in their banking system. It’s a systemic failure, so it’s like what doctors see when someone’s dying and their organs begin shutting down.

“That’s in addition to what we can find out about their oil and other energy supplies. As to what we’d do, we’re not waiting for the event. That’s what we are talking about here.”

“And how long can they last?” she pressed.

“I’d hoped you wouldn’t notice me not answering your first question.” Alexander paused, contemplating how to deal with the representative’s question. “The problem is that we are not looking at a military defeat. Both sides could keep smacking at each other for months. China has the advantage in manpower and materiel, but they aren’t fighting the war they planned for. That was focused largely on deterring us from becoming involved in an invasion of Taiwan. Now, they are facing a multi-front conflict against a unified opponent who is single-mindedly focused on crippling them economically. So, the real question is, ‘How long can China go before her economy has rolled too far downhill to prevent it from becoming an avalanche?’”

Sanchez motioned that she was following his line of thought, but her arced eyebrow showed she was still waiting for an answer.

Alexander sighed. “All right. If nothing changes, maybe three weeks. Not less than two weeks, probably not more than five. A change in alliance strategy, or, heaven forbid, some sort of random event like a natural disaster…” He shrugged.

Myles nodded to his fidgeting chief of staff. “That’s all, Milt,” and then, “Thank you, Colonel.” As the JCS briefer left, the others, silent during the brief, stirred. Myles explained, “Lady and gentlemen, you now know as much as I do. Frankly, I’m amazed at the reaction here in the U.S. It’s as if we’re the ones being bombed.”