Shattered Trident - Страница 14

“It would be a humiliation,” Komamura agreed, unhappily, embarrassed, “but I regret to say that this is not the course I envisioned. Even if such an offensive were completely successful, sending our submarines against their fleet would clearly be a classic military conflict, a clash of navies. It’s impossible for our subs to repeatedly attack naval vessels, especially after the initial surprise is lost, without being detected. Even if our boats evade counterattack, detection leads to identification, which would inevitably lead to retaliation.

“China’s political leadership would be compelled to respond, and to the world they would be the aggrieved party. All of our countries are within range of Chinese aircraft and missiles, and we cannot sink enough of their navy to prevent it from actions against our shipping or coastlines. It would still become a wide-scale war.”

Admiral Park clearly wasn’t happy. “It’s a classic matchup of our strength against their weakness. Why wouldn’t it work?”

The professor replied, “Because while anti-submarine warfare is a weakness in the Chinese Navy, it is not a fatal one for China. Her true weakness is her dependence on energy from abroad. If you want to make them feel pain, shut off their oil.”

Nodding toward Admiral Park, Komamura explained, “I agree that a covert deployment and a timed, coordinated offensive is important, but the target should be the merchant ships bound for Chinese ports, specifically, their tankers. Their economy is balanced on a knife’s edge. It would not happen overnight, but halting their oil imports will hurt them badly. They can compensate, at least at first, but the compensation itself will trigger other problems.”

“Why wouldn’t they respond to an attack on merchants the same as attacks on their navy?” Park countered.

“Because a merchant has no way to detect the identity of its attacker,” the professor answered. “Until China can supply proof of nationality, it will be reluctant to act overtly, especially since two of our members are U.S. allies. There is historical precedent. During the Spanish Civil War, unidentified ‘pirate’ submarines sank Soviet merchant ships bringing supplies to the Republican forces. They were Italian subs, but while there were suspicions and accusations, the Russians could never provide proof.”

“That can’t last forever,” Park argued.

“It won’t last long,” Hieu agreed. “And China won’t wait to act. There will be covert responses against anyone she suspects. And we all have merchant ships, too.”

“Every day of uncertainty is a day we’re hurting them and they’re not hurting us,” Kubo answered. “We can even leak suspicions that the ‘first’ merchant ship lost, Vinaship Sea, was caused by a Chinese attack. And we can pull our merchants out of harm’s way and effectively embargo trade with China at the same time. That will deny her strategic materials, sophisticated machinery and electronic imports.”

“How long will it take for her economy to show the effects?” Hieu asked.

Komamura felt more comfortable with this question, and he’d researched it carefully. “They have a strategic oil reserve of ninety days at their normal consumption rate, but they’ve already started using it because of shortfalls in their oil imports,” he explained. Seeing their faces, he quickly added, “But we will not have to wait that long. Oil prices will spike. That will cause pain by itself, and then China will see her shipping costs increase by as much as fifty percent. Together, these will cause great stress. Shortages will quickly affect many sectors of their economy.”

“And your goal?” Kubo prompted, as if he knew the answer.

“At least a recession, and preferably an economic depression.” Even as its author, Komamura hated the sound of it. Economists wanted to fix things, not wreck them.

“Not a collapse?” Park asked.

“No, Admiral,” Komamura quickly responded, “that would be a disaster for all of us. Famine and civil unrest in the largest nation on earth? It could create the greatest humanitarian disaster in history, and nobody can predict the political consequences.” He spoke with great intensity. How many would die? What would China’s leaders do to stave off famine?

“It would replace greed with desperation,” the professor explained. “I believe it is enough to give China’s leaders a new set of long-term problems.”

Park looked thoughtful. “And we do not attack PLAN vessels.”

Komamura shrugged. “Except in self-defense, of course. We must do our best not to give the Chinese an opportunity to play the victim on the world stage. Their submarines are a special case. We shouldn’t go looking for them, but since they can attack our merchant ships, if one of our subs meets one, we should sink it.”

“When should we start this campaign?” Hieu asked.

“Now. This very minute.” Komamura felt the intensity return. “Damaging their carrier threw their plan into disorder, but nobody believes they have abandoned their goal entirely. In that case, the sooner we close the valve, the better.”

“This means more than just sending out our submarines,” Park argued. “Our armed forces have to be prepared, our merchant ships diverted. If there’s to be an embargo, we should be stockpiling critical materials.”

“Any visible action may warn China,” Komamura countered. “I recommend sending out your submarines immediately, but take no other detectable action until Chinese merchant ships begin sinking. After that happens, your actions can be explained as reactions to those events.”

Komamura took the time to study the reaction of each delegation. He saw general agreement with the plan, but the import and scope of the consequences were just now becoming clear. Having heard Komamura’s plan before, Kubo was calmest. Park looked thoughtful, but his aide was writing at a furious pace.

Hieu’s face was hard, almost angry. “Our nation has been at war since Banh Mi mined the carrier,” he declared. “All three of our submarines will be under way within the hour. The rest of our armed forces have been quietly preparing. If this conference had not ended as it has, we were prepared to begin the struggle ourselves. We have fought and won against powerful enemies before.”

The Vietnamese admiral stood and bowed slightly. “The Socialist Republic of Vietnam is honored to join our cause to yours.”

26 August 2016

By Water

Halifax, Nova Scotia

Mac tried to keep a regular schedule, stopping in the late evening. At his age, he felt a late night much more than he used to. But he loved communicating with friends scattered all over the globe, sharing their interests and knowledge. Sometimes it was hard to stop.

Threads of a dozen conversations passed through the keyboard, and Mac often imagined himself playing ping-pong with his correspondents, but instead of balls, batting information back and forth. It was a good game, and in the end both players won.

...

From: IanK457

To: Maritime Losses

Subj: Loss of Vinaship Sea

Mac,

Reports at Lloyd’s of London during the period of 17–20 August include only one incident in the region. The South Korean–flagged container ship Hanjin Malta sighted a column of smoke over the horizon at 1349 local on 18 August. Proceeding to the scene, she sighted debris at 1447 local at 11°02′ lat, 112°35′ long. No survivors, or clues to the identity of the vessel.

Mac studied the e-mail, reading it through twice. He wished he could track down the captain of Hanjin Malta and ask him about the “column of smoke.” That sounded like an explosion, and a big one. How high had the column gone? How far away had they been from the victim? The report didn’t list Hanjin Malta’s starting location, but it had taken her almost an hour to reach the scene, presumably at her best speed.

That he could work with. He called up her particulars. Motor Vessel Hanjin Malta, call sign D977, length 289 meters, beam 32 meters, maximum speed 16.7 knots, built in…

He could ignore the rest. The container ship had been at least fifteen nautical miles away from the unfortunate vessel, which meant a column, what, a hundred, two hundred feet high? At least.

Mac was familiar with explosions at sea, although he’d never been in the military. If you cared about the sea, and you lived in Halifax, you knew about the December 1917 collision between the relief ship SS Imo and SS Mont-Blanc, carrying thousands of tons of TNT, picric acid, and guncotton. The force of the explosion had been calculated at three kilotons. They’d heard it on Cape Breton, over two hundred miles away.

It killed two thousand people, as well as leveling most of the town. That smoke column had ascended to twenty thousand feet, but an explosion of “only” a few hundred feet still meant tons of explosive, enough to shatter the hull of most vessels, including this one, obviously. And an explosion that big could not be caused by coal dust.

But was it Vinaship Sea? He pulled up a digital chart and plotted the freighter’s track, based on her departure time, then started measuring. Her reported position was hundreds of miles from the site of the explosion reported by Hanjin Malta. But on the chart, Mac could see that the distance along Vinaship Sea’s track seemed the same as the distance from Ho Chi Minh City to the explosion when backtracked two days. This proved nothing, but still, two unexplained ship losses, closely related in time, and in the same region strained credibility.